{"id":3635,"date":"2022-04-28T08:20:42","date_gmt":"2022-04-28T08:20:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/culture\/politics\/foreign-politics\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/"},"modified":"2022-04-28T08:20:42","modified_gmt":"2022-04-28T08:20:42","slug":"moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/technology\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Moscow&#8217;s plan to annex Transnistria could drag NATO into war"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Moldova and Transnistria are now in the sights of Russia.  We anticipated it last March, but now the danger seems much more real.  For days, the small pro-Russian separatist region &#8211; the link is evident from the flag, where hammer and sickle still stand out &#8211; there have been explosions and attacks on military targets, Russian infrastructures such as radio towers, and government offices, such as the Ministry of Security internal.<\/p>\n<p>According to the government of the self-styled Republic of Dniester, the responsibility for the attacks lies with the Ukrainians.  Thesis denied by Kiev, which instead leans towards the Russian attack under a false flag.  For Moscow this is a clear sign of a trend that has been underway for some time: in an interview with Pravda, the political scientist of United Russia Sergej Markov declared that &#8220;the displacement of Romanian troops in Moldova would have the purpose of annexing Transnistria together with the Ukrainians and NATO and repress the Russian-speaking population \u201d.<\/p><div id=\"forum-2231077945\" class=\"forum-content-2 forum-entity-placement\">\t\t<div class=\"ad-wrapper\" style=\"width:100%;min-height:250px;text-align:center\">\r\n\t\t\t<!-- In Article Blog -->\r\n\t\t\t<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n\t\t\t\t style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3476569516614521\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-slot=\"9829044906\"><\/ins>\r\n\t\t\t<script>\r\n\t\t\t\t (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n\t\t\t<\/script>\r\n\t\t<\/div><\/div>\n<p>Even harder was Viktor Vodolatsky, first vice-president of the Commission for inter-ethnic affairs of the Russian Duma: \u00abThere are our citizens in Transnistria.  They, like those of Luhansk and Donetsk, want a secure future with Russia.  We must not allow Maia Sandu and her Romanian curators to start another war in Transnistria today.  All this Nazism, which has taken root next to us, just needs to be destroyed, uprooted and forgotten for many years \u201d.  Words that are not very different from those used by the Russian government before the invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The danger for Moldova<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"forum-3022479164\" class=\"forum-content forum-entity-placement\">\t\t<div class=\"ad-wrapper\" style=\"width:100%;min-height:250px;text-align:center\">\r\n\t\t\t<!-- In Article Blog -->\r\n\t\t\t<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n\t\t\t\t style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3476569516614521\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-slot=\"9829044906\"><\/ins>\r\n\t\t\t<script>\r\n\t\t\t\t (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n\t\t\t<\/script>\r\n\t\t<\/div><\/div>\n<p>In Chisinau, danger is seen as looming.  Prime Minister Maia Sandu summoned the National Security Council and at the end expressed deep concern about &#8220;what is happening in the region, a clear attempt to bring Transnistria into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>The fear of the Moldovan government is that in the end what has never happened in almost 30 years will be realized: the independence of the separatist Republic of Dnestr.  Tiraspol dreams of independence from Chisinau and now he could find the perfect bank in the Kremlin which, until now, has always ignored his requests.<\/p><div id=\"forum-4158161289\" class=\"forum-content-3 forum-entity-placement\">\t\t<div class=\"ad-wrapper\" style=\"width:100%;min-height:250px;text-align:center\">\r\n\t\t\t<!-- In Article Blog -->\r\n\t\t\t<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n\t\t\t\t style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3476569516614521\"\r\n\t\t\t\t data-ad-slot=\"9829044906\"><\/ins>\r\n\t\t\t<script>\r\n\t\t\t\t (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n\t\t\t<\/script>\r\n\t\t<\/div><\/div>\n<p>The disproportion between the forces in the field would be considerable: the Moldavian army has a few thousand men and has never been engaged in real war operations given its historical neutrality, also recently confirmed by the choice not to assume any entry in NATO.  Russia, on the other hand, would not only have a more numerous and well-formed army, but could also count on a respectable war arsenal, given that in Transnistria there are reserves of ammunition and equipment for almost 22 thousand tons, a legacy of the Soviet era, with 1,500 men to garrison them.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, reporting what Nello Scavo wrote yesterday in Avvenire, the men in the region would even have doubled, reaching almost 3 thousand units, to which must be added the Russian soldiers present as forces of <em>peacekeeping<\/em> and the Transnistrian army.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, the statement of Rustam Minnekayev, commander, does not seem so strange <em>ad interim<\/em> of the central military district, which a few days ago declared \u00abthat control of the whole south of Ukraine guarantees the passage to Transnistria\u00bb.  Such a paraphernalia on the westernmost border of the so-called Rusky Mir (the Russian world) would also be useful for Moscow to end the war in Ukraine: occupying Transnistria, the city of Odessa, hitherto impregnable Ukrainian stronghold, would be attacked from two sides.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Transnistria, however, would have no reason to wage war on Ukraine, with which it has numerous business: the only reason is a direct order from Moscow&#8221;, Eleonora Tafuro, researcher at ISPI, told Linkiesta.  And also for Russia to wage war, even if indirectly, in Chisinau, would be senseless, given that &#8220;Moldova already depends on Russia from an energy point of view and not only, as is also shown by Chisinau&#8217;s willingness not to apply sanctions wanted by the West towards Moscow.  Controlling Transnistria more would mean strengthening a strategic bastion, which can only be reached after a long passage through southern Ukraine, which at the moment is not being built, \u201dconcludes Tafuro.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The posture of Romania<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A massive arrival of the Russians in Transnistria would have a symbolic meaning first of all, because having Putin&#8217;s soldiers at the mouth of the Danube would be a problem not only for Moldova but also for Romania which, unlike Chisinau, is inside both the European Union than the Atlantic Alliance.<\/p>\n<p>Bucharest claims it wants to keep its distance from what is happening, or could happen, in the neighboring country, even if it certainly will not stand by and watch.  \u00abRomania, as a member of NATO, cannot make such a gesture, because NATO, according to article 5, can only intervene when a NATO member state is attacked.  We support the Republic of Moldova in every possible way, but the Atlantic Alliance cannot intervene on the territory of a third state, \u201ddeclared Defense Minister Vasile D\u00eencu in an interview with Free Europe.<\/p>\n<p>Bucharest, as mentioned, does not stand by and watch: as declared by a European diplomat present in Moldova at Avvenire, \u201cChisinau is an hour&#8217;s drive from the border with Romania, a state of the European Union that is part of NATO.  But even if Moscow renounces an easy bite of it, we must not forget that the Ukrainian region of Odessa to the south borders precisely with Romania, and there would be no need to conquer Moldova to threaten an expansion of the conflict on the doorstep of Europe &#8220;.<\/p>\n<p>As Tafuro also points out, \u201cthis is why the Bucharest government is one of the most active in the Atlantic Alliance.  A detail that has not escaped even the Kremlin, given that Romania is one of Moscow&#8217;s favorite justifications for explaining the reason for the presence of the Russian military in Transnistria, perceived as a way to balance the US base hosted by Romanians on their territory.  At the moment, however, an intervention by Romania would make sense in the event of <em>escalation<\/em> of the conflict, given that if Bucharest enters the war it also brings NATO with it \u00bb.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The future of Transnistria<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>At this point, understanding what can happen becomes complex.  &#8220;The situation is certainly particular but it seems evident that the Kremlin makes fun of having a garrison in Tiraspol, given the pro-European tendency of the Moldovan government and the geostrategic importance it can assume in the south of Ukraine&#8221;, argues Tafuro.<\/p>\n<p>The next step, however, seems decidedly more complex: at the moment it seems difficult to imagine a real annexation: Transnistria is not Donetsk and Lugansk, here there are Russian citizens but there are also Moldovans, Romanians and even Ukrainians.  Moreover, Tiraspol is already in the hands of Moscow, direct control would be of little use.<\/p>\n<p>For this reason, it may be easier to imagine a sort of Tiraspol entry into the war in Ukraine which, however, should be accompanied by an advance of the Russians along the southern Ukrainian front.  In this case there would certainly be a destabilization of Moldova that Chisinau does not wish for, \u201dsays Tafuro.  Furthermore, the arrival of Putin&#8217;s soldiers would not make everyone happy.  &#8220;Already now &#8211; he adds &#8211; there are lines of cars leaving Transnistria: those who have a Moldovan or even Romanian passport prefer to go to Chisinau, knowing full well that they can then enter Europe from there, even if for a limited period&#8221;.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Moldova and Transnistria are now in the sights of Russia. We anticipated it last March, but now the danger seems much more real. For days, the small pro-Russian separatist region &#8211; the link is evident from the flag, where hammer and sickle still stand out &#8211; there have been explosions and attacks on military targets, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3636,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","entry","has-media"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Moscow&#039;s plan to annex Transnistria could drag NATO into war - Sbenny\u2019s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/technology\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moscow&#039;s plan to annex Transnistria could drag NATO into war - Sbenny\u2019s Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Moldova and Transnistria are now in the sights of Russia. We anticipated it last March, but now the danger seems much more real. 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We anticipated it last March, but now the danger seems much more real. For days, the small pro-Russian separatist region &#8211; the link is evident from the flag, where hammer and sickle still stand out &#8211; there have been explosions and attacks on military targets, [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/technology\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/","og_site_name":"Sbenny\u2019s Blog","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sbennymods\/","article_published_time":"2022-04-28T08:20:42+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1280,"height":848,"url":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/16809950-medium.jpg?v=1651134043","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Philip Owell","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Philip Owell","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/technology\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/technology\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/"},"author":{"name":"Philip Owell","@id":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/a77e10c2915dc8fe75aab9f446e1f0dc"},"headline":"Moscow&#8217;s plan to annex Transnistria could drag NATO into war","datePublished":"2022-04-28T08:20:42+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/technology\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/"},"wordCount":1246,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/technology\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/16809950-medium.jpg?v=1651134043","articleSection":["Technology"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/technology\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/","url":"https:\/\/forum.sbenny.com\/blog\/technology\/moscows-plan-to-annex-transnistria-could-drag-nato-into-war\/","name":"Moscow's plan to annex Transnistria could drag NATO into war - 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