«Vladimir Putin’s popularity is on the rise for now. And more and more people are supporting the offensive in Ukraine ». For Lev Gudkov, a member of the independent polling institute Levada, interviewed by Repubblica, the Kremlin propaganda coupled with the repression is bringing its results. “The percentage of those who believe that the country is going in the right direction has increased significantly,” he says.
According to the latest survey by the institute, declared a “foreign agent” by the authorities, in a month of “special military operation”, Vladimir Putin’s approval rate jumped from 71% in February to 83% in March. The Russian president may be losing the battle on the ground in Ukraine, but he is winning the battle at home. Not even the images of the dead of Bucha will change the orientation of the population. “People will not protest what happened because they have been convinced that it is not real,” Gudkov continues. «All the TV networks broadcast only denials. They say it was a staging, a hoax ».
More than five weeks after the launch of the offensive in Ukraine, consensus and anger towards the West have taken over. The message of the “fight against Nazism” relied on the most unifying element of national identity in the heir country of the USSR that beat Hitler.
But the repression has also done a lot. After the entry into force of the law on fake news and over 15 thousand arrests, there are no marches in the street of the first weeks but only solitary pickets. Many of those who opposed what is happening in Ukraine have fled the country. And the few who remain find the doors of their homes smeared with the words “traitors”.
Putin’s closest collaborators share his ideological background with him and are ready to carry on the war. And among the broader circles of elites, the sanctions have had the opposite effect to that hoped for by the West. “They understand that their lives are now tied only to Russia and that they have to build them here. They feel offended and will not overthrow anyone, ”explains independent journalist Farida Rustamova. Others, explains Lev Gudkov, “are frightened because the repression against them has become tougher. In the past, only 2% of high-level executives were arrested: governors, ministers and their deputies. In the last five to six years, however, 10-12% of the supreme nomenklatura. Therefore they are silent ».
According to the Vtsiom state center, 74% of the population supports the so-called “special military operation”. To those who question the goodness of the interlocutors’ answers, in the light of increasingly repressive laws, Gudkov replies: «To hide your opinion, you should have one. For each Muscovite there are about 15-17 sources of information, a number which, in itself, creates a certain criticality towards each piece of news. In the province, however, where about two out of three Russians live, there are only two or three sources: a federal TV channel and a local TV or radio channel. You have no choice there. The internet hardly reaches. And a family with an income of 25-30 thousand rubles cannot afford a 60 thousand pc ”.
But, according to Gudkov, there is no “Crimean effect”: “Then there was a real momentum, an euphoria, a nationalist ecstasy. Now the emotional background is different: there is fear, despair, depression, bewilderment and even indignation. But people accept what happens because they have only the picture in their eyes that puts in front of them an aggressive and deceptive propaganda and demagogic machine that operates 24 hours a day. People understand that some international norm has been violated, but they believe that it has been done in the name of a greater good: the defense of “ours” from the Ukrainian Nazis who practiced genocide ».
However, the effect of the sanctions will also have to be considered. “So far they have only been perceived in the big cities which in a month have seen about 200,000 people emigrate. An exodus never seen before. But soon there will be a ripple effect: rising unemployment, inflation, shortages of food and medicines, suspension of industries, withdrawal of Western companies with reductions in staff. The consequences will not manifest until mid-summer. And it will take time for people to realize this. The Russians, from this point of view, are inert ».
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