Danger escaped. It seems. Above all, once again the polls on Emmanuel Macron were out of order, which in recent weeks has not collapsed at all to 24 per cent, as unanimously predicted, but instead stands at a solid 28-29 per cent according to the first projections (in the 2017 in the first round had taken 24.01). On the other hand, the forecast on an advancement of Marine Le Pen which stands, as expected, between 23 and 24 per cent (in 2017 it had taken 21.3) is correct.
Therefore, the decisive political fact for the victory of the second round is that the outgoing president has capitalized favors in his five years, that he liked it, that he was not penalized by worries about the increase in the cost of living and that we lived the fear of its possible defeat only due to erroneous statistics of almost 20 per cent.
Of course, the last word is by no means said and Macron still doesn’t have victory in his pocket. The indications to vote for him in the second round, when added to his votes, do not reach 40 per cent and are only a political signal from the neo-Galilist Valérie Pécresse (with a paltry 4.8 per cent, whereas her predecessor François Fillon five years ago he had taken 20.01), of the Green Yannick Jadot with 4.3 per cent, of the communist Fabien Roussel (2.60 per cent) and of the socialist Anne Hidalgo, with more than 2 per cent (against 6.36 of his predecessor Benoît Hamon). On her part instead of hers, if Le Pen adds her votes to those of Éric Zemmour, who immediately indicated to his constituents to vote for her in the second round, it is just over 30 percent.
In reality, however, the dynamics of the second round are only partially determined by the voting indications of the losers. The voters in the ballot vote both for and against, in hatred of a candidate, and it is likely that in two weeks, unlike 2002 and 2017, a Front Républicain will not be formed against the danger of the presidency of a Le Pen which is out of the shadow of the reactionary subversion that characterized his father Jean-Marie and his Front National.
The main, but potential, advantage of Marine is therefore – and not paradoxically – the possible influx of votes “against Macron” and even in hatred of Macron that the polls (for what they are worth) predict that they could come from a quota important – 30-50 per cent – of the more than leftist electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (21 per cent). A real possibility – we will later see to what extent it will materialize – that would bring the two candidates in the ballot very close and that it is no coincidence that Mélenchon himself, with the polls just closed, launch an appeal to his voters “because not a single vote of theirs go to Le Pen. ‘
So a run-off still open, but in any case the end of the nightmare that has marred the last days of a Macron that would have “deflated”, that would have lost its enamel and appeal as much as Le Pen would have bought. Macron continues his march and has not been ballasted.
Even if, as for France’s stability, even when and if he wins the second round, Macron will have to deal with a National Assembly that will hardly see his La République En Marche replicate the success of 2017 in the parliamentary elections in June. his Macron party has strung together errors and losses of consensus and is likely to have to govern with a rather unstable coalition parliamentary majority.
However, what matters is that at least for now Europe can breathe a sigh of relief.
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