Thrilling presidential elections in France: it is not excluded that in the second round, alas, Marine Le Pen will win. At least this is what the polls say, for what they are worth, but above all, to confirm the pathos of waiting, this is what Emmanuel Macron fears. In his first and only meeting last Sunday, all aimed at the second round, he said: “I don’t believe who he says that I have already won, but not even at the Cassandras ». His closest collaborators are clearer, who do not confidentially hide from the French media their strong, very strong concern for a possible defeat, a fear that has grown stronger in the last days of the election campaign.
Therefore, it seems that it will not be surprising if on the evening of April 24, in the second round with Macron, France will have not only a female president, but a sovereignist at the Elysée. If this happened, the entire political order of the European Union would be revolutionized, with a very strong impact also in Italy.
We come therefore to the polls which in recent weeks have recorded a worrying slow but continuous decline in Macron’s prices in the first round (while until mid-February his election seemed absolutely certain) and an equally slow but continuous growth of Le Pen. . The sore point is obviously the decisive second round which sees a minimum statistical distance between the two, with Macron at 51.5% and Le Pen at 48.5%, which, the technicians say, with a margin of error of the 3% means that the two are paired with a slight advantage over the former.
Of course, the polls can be wrong, as we have seen countless times, but the French electorate has accustomed us to big surprises, like when in 2005 they rejected the path to the European Constitution with 54.67%, despite the fact that in their favor we both the neo Gaullists of Jacques Chirac, president of the Republic, and the socialists of François Hollande, future president of the Republic, were lined up, therefore a potential for votes in favor of well over 60% which was largely overturned in a vote against. All this, moreover, due to a “no” to Europe widely expressed by the most popular and disadvantaged strata from an economic and social point of view.
Today, while waiting for the royal vote, the political reasons for this progression of favors for Le Pen must be recorded, premising that the French electoral dynamics are very little comparable to those of Italy.
First of all, the end of the dynamic of the Front Républicain plays in its favor, the compact front of all political forces against the subversive danger of the victory of a far-right candidate who had awarded a plebiscite victory to Chirac in 2002 against Jean Marie Le Pen and which in 2017 awarded Macron with a sound 66.10% is penalized at 33.90% the Le Pen.
The reason for this remarkable novelty is twofold and the first is very interesting: the appearance on the presidential scene of Èric Zemmour, credited with just over 10% in the first round, took away Le Pen’s right-handed ballast and attracted only on the outsider of far right fears about a subversive turn for the republican order by the centrist and left electorate. The proof is that the polls say that a good half of the electorate of Jean Luc Mélenchon, far left, pro Putin and anti NATO, will not vote for Macron for fear of a victory of Le Pen, credited in third place with a solid 15% it’s more. In 2017, on the other hand, the entire left voted compactly for Macron who had engulfed above all the socialist and Gaullist electorate, but also that of the extreme left.
But in reality what matters most to Le Pen’s advantage is its decisive turn to the center, with explicit Gaullist accents. In addition to the extraordinary ability with which she has managed to get her personal her and more than scabrous relations with Vladimir Putin and the more than olent and massive Kremlin funding to its Rassemblement National to the very last floor. A small masterpiece of disguising the rottenness in the house.
A turn to the center gained in recent years, gradually abandoning the strong identity themes of the French right inherited from his father Jean Marie, all left to the Zemmour campaign: from rechangement (the replacement of the French by Muslim immigrants), to the panic over wild immigration, to Islam, now just ecumenically defined by her as “a religion like any other” after taking a smiling selfie and hugging a Muslim immigrant.
But, above all, Le Pen has intercepted consensus because it was able to get in tune with the major concern of the electorate, solid and banal: the cost of living jumped up both due to the increase in energy costs well before the invasion of Ukraine. , both for the negative effects of the sanctions imposed by the EU on Putin.
So an electoral platform entirely focused on today, with the strong proposal to lower the tax on fuels and others on the minimum wage to 5%, etc. to reiterate for consistency its proposal, which failed due to electoral protests, to move the retirement age to 65, from the current 62 years, urging: “We have to work longer, as they do in Italy, Germany and Spain”.
Not only that, Le Pen also had a good game in capitalizing on the stumbling block of the workhorse on which Macron counted a lot: the weight of his prestige and international role, even more evidenced by the happy coincidence of his presidency of the European Council in the semester. electoral. In reality, the facts have shown that Macron had almost no impact on the Ukrainian crisis, not because of his demerit, but because of the chronic political and military weakness of the European Union.
Not only that, Macron also carries on his shoulders, in terms of lost prestige, the weight of the French withdrawal with disgrace from Mali, a country in which 58 French soldiers died unnecessarily in the Sérval and Barkhane operations, plus some civilians. Withdrawal imposed by a government of Bamako that kicked out France to ask for Russia’s intervention, as did Central Africa. Therefore a failure of the African policy of France, central from a geopolitical and economic point of view for the Hexagon, whose weight falls entirely on the Elysée.
For her part, Le Pen has also significantly changed her personal image in favor of the centrist and right-thinking electorate. No longer a heated, screaming and controversial champion of the most backward ideas of the far right, but a peaceful lady, who you are is separated from her man, who has lived alone in the countryside with her best friend since childhood, surrounded by a tribe of beloved cats and very exposed to the bucolic photos of the weeklies.
Last but not least, the disappearance from the French political scene of the Gaullists, reduced to 10% of the dull Valérie Pécresse and even more of the socialists, restricted to an insignificant 2% of Hidalgo within a left which, with the Verdi, overall, slightly exceeds 20% of the votes, three quarters of which – another disturbing symptom – go to a Mélenchon that re-proposes the most backward themes of leftist extremism.
Start a new Thread