The near future of the smartphone chipset market looks bleak, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. According to their latest report, Apple is reducing demand for 3nm chips; Qualcomm is also reducing production, prompting the Dutch ASML to cut EUV equipment shipments for 2024 by around 20-30%.
Kuo revealed that the current market consensus predicted that the semiconductor business would bottom in the second half of this year, but the slump could extend into the second quarter of 2024.
ASML, formerly Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography, is a company based in Veldhoven, the Netherlands and is a major supplier of equipment to chipset foundries around the world. His forecast of lower shipments has three main reasons, Kuo wrote:
The first is that Apple faced declining demand for MacBook and iPad devices after the sharp decline in working from home (WFH). Apple’s new chips and mini LED screens aren’t enough to let customers upgrade to new devices, and Cupertino saw a 30 percent decline in laptops shipped (17 million total for the fiscal year), as well as a 22 percent drop % of iPads shipped (48 million).
Interest in Qualcomm’s 3nm chips has also waned due to Huawei’s decision to stop buying chips from the San Diego company, with or without 5G modems. There’s also the expected increased penetration of Exynos 2400 chips from Samsung, which is hurting Qualcomm’s overall outlook.
Demand for Samsung’s 3GAP+ and Intel’s 20A processes is lower than expected, and on top of everything else, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix aren’t expected to launch a major memory advancement until 2025-2027.
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