The Russian reaction has already arrived. After Sweden and Finland made it known that they wanted to join NATO as a result of Moscow’s attack on Ukraine, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev announced that the Kremlin will be forced to reinforce its military presence, including with nuclear weapons. along the Baltic border. Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen, in an interview with Repubblica, said that he “expects Russia’s reaction”, but that Helsinki “will defend itself”.
But according to the American political scientist Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO is nothing more than “yet another error of assessment by Putin”.
In an interview with the press, Bremmer explains that «the Kremlin said that the reason for the invasion of Ukraine was the reaction of NATO’s expansion to the east. Yet Kiev had no accession path underway. And what happens now? That Finland and Sweden start the paperwork to enter NATO. And if we take into account that Finland has over 800 kilometers of border with Russia, well I would say that it is not exactly an easy situation for Putin ».
What will happen? “We will certainly see a greater conflict between Russia and NATO because, let’s clear the field of misunderstandings immediately, this conflict is not only in and for Ukraine but has a wider dimension and will expand further”. According to the American political scientist, these are Putin’s next moves: «Russia will increase its military presence, multiply its exercises, show more strength, invest in espionage especially in neighboring countries. These are all elements that contribute to raising the level of risk. An accident can always happen, a naval trespass or an air interception. But there are other modalities that Moscow will implement ».
For example, «the hybrid war – from cyberattacks to disinformation – especially against Finland and Sweden. But also directed to other NATO countries. It is a terrain on which the Russians have been moving for some time and I expect an escalation. And then pay attention to proxy war, wars by proxy. Moscow could set up bases in the western hemisphere, in Venezuela or in Cuba ».
It’s a new Cold War. “There is no doubt about this, however it is less dangerous than the original one because it is not global,” says Bremmer. «The new Iron Curtain is made up of Russia, Belarus, Crimea, Donbass. And here, however, the Russian influence ends. Moscow is irrelevant in Latin America, not much in Asia and Africa, and not even that much in the Middle East. That is why it is not a global conflict. And then there is the economy to keep in mind. The Russian one is weakening and is relatively small. Sanctions are biting and Moscow’s isolation from the West is increasing week by week. However, even if it has different characteristics, there are aspects that make this new Cold War more destabilizing which are mainly connected to hybrid war ».
How long could it last? “The removal of Russia from the West is permanent. When Biden accuses Putin of crimes against humanity and genocide, we are no longer in a position to say that he will return to the business as usual. We are in a new dimension. And I repeat: permanent ».
But, beware, says Bremmer, «the belief of the Alliance is that although there will be attention to the Pacific, there will never be accessions by those countries and, above all, a NATO” posture “towards that area. China is an immense country, its interconnections with the US and Europe in economic terms are very many, no country wants a confrontation. Cutting China off the market path as done with Russia, for example, is beyond all thought ».
But what if Trump gets the Republican nomination and then reverts to America First unilateralism? “Better for Europeans to gear up,” says the political scientist. The leading country of the new European defense will be Germany, he explains. «The speech with which Olaf Scholz announced the increase in defense spending over 2% of GDP and the shipment of weapons to Ukraine is the most important intervention by a European leader in recent decades. A turning point that reflects the leadership that Berlin will hold in future seasons ».
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