Emmanuel Macron won, he won well, with 58.2%, and he is still the president of France. But, it must be said, Marine Le Pen lost well with a jump forward of nearly 8 points. He had done 33.90% in the second round of 2018 and now, according to projections, he stands at 41.8%.
Averted danger for France and for Europe, therefore. Macron not only stays at the Elysée, but can immediately try to redeem Europe from cul de sac in which it hunted alone due to its dependence on Russian gas which makes it finance the war against Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine with tens of billions. Therefore, an immediate and double international commitment, first of all to move the German giant from its hesitations on the blocking of imports of at least oil and gas from Russia and then, and together, to try the company, desperate today, to have the voice and role of the ‘Europe in the non-existent negotiation between Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin, all of it, with a Europe that continues to deny itself because just today Austria declared its veto to open a path for Ukraine to join the EU quickly, denying so too hasty assurances of Ursula with Der Leyen.
But Emmanuel Macron will immediately have to face even the hottest internal policy dossiers not only on the front of inflation and expensive life – Le Pen’s workhorse – but also on that indispensable pension reform at the age of 65 on which his parents failed. predecessors Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande and himself in mid-term.
For her part, Marine Le Pen can console herself for a defeat, albeit a clear one, 16 points of disadvantage, looking at the next legislative elections in June, at which Emmanuel Macron presents himself with his party la République en Marche, in poor conditions and in which she it can point to concrete progress. But you above all you can plan a long electoral campaign sure to be very well positioned in five years.
Today 53 years old, the leader of the Rassemblement National will be able to compare herself still young in 2027 having perfected her positioning at the center, her nouveau sovereignty moderate, which has rewarded it well today and above all will have a weak opponent by force of circumstances. Macron will not be able to reappear by law, his party is hyper personal and he does not like to have right arms and so far he has been careful not to designate not only an heir, but even a number 2, a deputy, the Gaullists and the socialists have disappeared from scene and the only candidate in force is Jean Luc Mélenchon, who has good hopes for the next first round, but very few for an election due to his exasperated leftism
So a crossing of the desert for a right-wing candidate well-stocked with water reserves.
Finally, a remark that says a lot about the French, about how they live politics – more against than in favor – and about the logic of the ballot: in all probability the 2017 scenario of 4 million French will be repeated today, more than 11. % who went to the polls but voted blank or no ballot. Which, added to about 28% of abstentions, gives an interesting picture: the president is elected by just over 35% of those entitled to vote. Which obviously does not detract from its full legitimacy but gives the sign of a disruptive political crisis.
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