48 hours after the decisive vote for the Elysée, French President Emmanuel Macron gives a long interview from the headquarters of his election campaign to journalists from Ouest France, Corriere della Sera and the German group Funke.
Macron talks about the TV duel against Marine Le Pen, the ecological turning point that could ensure him the support of at least part of the left and the war in Ukraine. He does not underestimate the ballot on Sunday, since – despite the advantage in the polls – nothing has already been decided. But he says he is extremely worried about the intensification of and above all he dwells on what Europe could be called upon to do.
“We are living through dramatic hours, and very hard ones. With the prospect of 9 May (the anniversary of the victory over Nazism, ed), Russia will intensify its attacks on the Ukrainian east and we will have to make decisions, ”says Macron. “And if we decide on new sanctions, or if Russia decides counter-sanctions on hydrocarbons, but even more on gas, it is clear that Europeans will have to ask for efforts from all families. At that point we will explain that we will have to lower the temperatures, reduce a little, to be less dependent. We will not see the consequences in spring or summer 2022 (we have replenished stocks), but this will not happen next winter if we no longer have Russian gas. I want to reassure you, it is not the scenario in which we find ourselves today, but this scenario can arrive ».
The complete embargo on Russian gas and oil, he explains, “is an issue that could reach the negotiating table, not yet today. Coal and oil are already in negotiations, gas not yet. We know the immense difficulty this causes. This is also why you have been hearing me talk about European energy sovereignty for years. I talk about it from my speech at the Sorbonne (26 September 2017, ed) “.
Macron explains that “if I have fought so much through diplomatic channels, it is because in the current context, every day that Russia decides to move to the next level on the military, diplomatic or tactical level, it reduces its chances of a return to normality, and it reduces our ability to build lasting peace. Taking into account the war crimes now ascertained, the choices made by Russia, the way to conduct the war in the Donbass and Mariupol, taking into account the provocations on nuclear power since the end of February and the tests carried out on Wednesday, there is clearly a will to escalation by Russia. Our primary responsibility is to do everything possible to help Ukraine. I think we have all been right in helping Ukraine, from a financial and military point of view. Those who think like Marine Le Pen would not have offered any help to Ukraine. Secondly, we must increase sanctions and maintain pressure on Russia, but being careful not to give in to any escalation ».
The risk “is very high”, he reiterates. “What happened on Wednesday, with the launch of the ICBM, is very serious. The two dangers are vertical and horizontal escalation. The first is the change in the nature of warfare and the use of non-conventional weapons, from chemical ones to ballistic nuclear weapons. Horizontal escalation is the co-belligerence of allied countries or other powers. I think we must do everything to avoid this fire by stopping the war. That is why, alongside our policy of pressure and sanctions, we must continue talking to our partners, in the Gulf, in India, in China, to avoid a breakup of the world. A fracture such that, faced with Russia, there would be only one field, formed by the United States and Europe, while others could slip away. The responsibility of Europe – and in this regard our countries, France, Italy, Germany, have the role of mediating powers – is to continue talking to others to avoid a fracture of the world. Because it would lead to a vassal Europe, and to the complete rupture of our Europe in the end. This too would be a risk of escalation ».
And while continuing to supply arms to Ukraine, he specifies that there must always be “a red line, which is not to enter co-belligerence”.
But at the same time “we will have to continue talking to Vladimir Putin. Both Mario and I (Draghi, ed) we no longer spoke to him after the Bucha scenes. We were all stunned, overwhelmed. I simply talked to Vladimir Putin every time Zelensky asked me. We must not forget that the Ukrainian president wants this contact. It is in this context that our role is useful. And it will be necessary to prepare for peace. One day there will be a ceasefire. There will be guaranteeing powers, and we will be among them. So I think we need to be very careful. I say this with great gravity and, I dare say, with an ethical weight, but if out of fatigue we choose not to talk to him anymore, then we leave the responsibility of speaking with Vladimir Putin to the Turkish president, the Indian prime minister, the Chinese president. And we decide that non-Europeans will build peace in Europe the next day. Therefore, even if it is very hard, even if it is sometimes ineffective, we must insist ».
And we must insist even if it is very hard, he says. «It is hard to be faced with the denial of the facts. It is hard to spend hours talking with President Zelensky, with people who experience horror, a manifest horror. We are all shocked. And then you have in front of you someone who denies it, who laughs at it, who repeats that it’s just a staging… », Macron says, referring to Putin. «But I remain convinced that, historically, this is our role. For me it is very important, an obsession. It is about Europe, and Europeans must be present around the table to build peace in Europe ».
How does this war explain it? “History will explain what has happened in recent years, because a man born in St. Petersburg, who lived for a long time in Germany, who spent the first ten years of his national political life building the return of Russia in the concert of nations, could then methodically destroy what he had accomplished. Returning to imperial dreams of the early twentieth century or nineteenth century », he replies. “But you have to build something with him. He is an intelligent man, I don’t contest him. He is an intelligent man. And I want to believe that there is still something in him that leads him to want to leave history, his people, something else that is not chaos and ignominy. I do not want to abandon this thread. I know that it is up to us Europeans to build peace on our soil. On the day of the ceasefire we will have to be present at the negotiating table to guarantee collective security and peace in the region ”. All Europeans, «each with his own vocation. Our three countries (France, Italy and Germany, ed), but I think the whole European Union will have to be present “
A Europe, explains Macron, which has given great proof of unity. “We have always managed to build a unit. It is normal that there are different precautions, different sensitivities. We are all aware that we are facing important choices. I say this with a sense of responsibility, especially since France is much less dependent on Russian gas and hydrocarbons. We are an interconnected market. And I care about Europe. We will be in solidarity. It is also for this reason that I respect the political and social path that exists in the various countries. But from day one we acted as Europeans. With the same awareness of things, and the same will to do. In the end, we will find the good solution together ». And again: «Many believed it impossible to get the Russian central bank out of the Swift system, and they thought that we would never be able to sanction these great players. Instead we did it and we are doing it. Because political leaders and public opinion know that European unity is our common interest. Also for this we must fight not to weaken it. If I look at Italy, Germany, France, I see that we are hand in hand. We do not have the same history, the same sensitivity, but there are three managers who respect each other, who appreciate each other and who will act together. We will make the decisions at the right moment ».
This is why a Marine Le Pen victory would be dangerous. “The project defended by Marine Le Pen is an undeclared exit from Europe, as is the case for many other issues”. What he proposes “is to reduce France’s contribution to Europe, renounce the primacy of European law over national law, exit the European energy market, establish a national preference on jobs, re-establish border controls with many customs officers how many there were in 1990, is written in his program. It means leaving the European climate project, collaborating with Germany, and building a kind of alliance of European nations, which would therefore no longer be the European Union, and an alliance with Russia. Therefore, it would be the end of the European Union and the end of the Franco-German axis. I believe that things should be called by their name. “
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